Rangers vs Lightning Game 3: Tampa's Turnaround

The Tampa Bay Lightning have turned the tables on the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final, with their impressive wins in Games 3 and 4. Despite facing a potential 0-3 deficit in the series after going down 2-0 in Game 3, the Lightning have roared back to knot the best-of-seven at two games apiece.

One of the key factors behind Tampa's resurgence is their dominance in high-danger scoring chances. According to stats, they hold a 54-32 edge over the Rangers in this category and a +4.26 expected goal differential. This suggests that the Lightning have been much more effective at creating scoring opportunities, even if they haven't necessarily translated into goals.

The Rangers, on the other hand, have struggled with their chances, particularly at 5-on-5. In fact, Tampa has out-chanced them in two series in a row now, including this one. This could be attributed to New York's eight-game winning streak at home, which may have led to complacency.

Despite being on the road, the Lightning are actually favored to win Game 5, with odds of -130. Interestingly, these odds are identical to those for Game 2, suggesting that there hasn't been a significant market reaction to their impressive wins in Games 3 and 4. Tampa is now even money favorites to win the series at -165.

The Rangers still have home-ice advantage in two of the possible three remaining games, but it's clear that the Lightning are gaining momentum. As the series shifts back to New York, bettors may need to pay a premium for the Blueshirts' chances, given their impressive form at MSG.

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